91% of Anthropic Staff Expect AI to Make a Nobel-Level Discovery by 2030

Anthropic surveyed its own employees and a nationally representative sample of US adults to compare expectations for artificial intelligence capabilities by 2030. 91% of Anthropic staff expect AI to make a Nobel-level scientific discovery by 2030, compared to just 39% of the general public. Anthropic employees anticipate AI will be able to perform 75% of their current work hours by 2030, while US workers average an expectation of 28%. US workers who expect AI to handle 80% or more of their work forecast an average national unemployment rate of 12.2% by 2030. The general public cited "customers preferring to deal with a person" and data privacy as the biggest obstacles to workplace AI adoption, prioritizing human preferences over technological limits.