China Proposes Export Licensing Rules for Top AI Models Like DeepSeek and Qwen

China's Ministry of Commerce proposed draft export control rules last Friday that would require Chinese AI developers to obtain government licenses before exporting the core technology behind their leading models. The proposed restrictions apply to any model that meets specific parameter-size or training-computation thresholds, or ranks in the top 10 for global usage—criteria that Trivium China analysts say would cover future versions of Alibaba's Qwen, DeepSeek, and Moonshot AI's Kimi. The draft rules would ban the export of AI systems capable of launching cyberattacks or trained on "core data" related to national security, critical infrastructure, or state secrets, while leaving already-released models and overseas access via apps and online services unaffected. If adopted, the measures would also give Beijing regulatory authority over foreign acquisitions of Chinese AI startups, following an incident earlier in 2026 where Beijing scuttled Meta's deal to acquire Singapore-based, China-founded AI firm Manus and restricted its executives from leaving China. "It is almost like you have two voices speaking at the same time. One saying, 'We want extra control of these sensitive technologies so that they can't hurt China' and another voice saying, 'We want to develop the best A.I. technology and we want to share it with rest of the world.'" — Kyle Chan, Fellow at the Brookings Institution.