J.P. Morgan Forecasts Bitcoin to Outperform US Stocks and Gold Over Next Decade

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has added Bitcoin to its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report for the first time, forecasting the digital asset will beat US stocks and gold over the next decade. The bank projects a 10% annual compound return for Bitcoin, positioning it ahead of US large-cap equities at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%, making it the highest-returning asset class in the history of the report's projections. Bitcoin’s annualized arithmetic return is estimated at 20.9%, but its 55% annualized volatility drag means the actual compound return an investor captures over time is reduced to 10%. Despite leading the long-term forecast table, J.P. Morgan actively excluded Bitcoin from its sample portfolio allocations, stopping short of formally recommending actual portfolio position sizing to its clients. The report sets a shorter-term price target for Bitcoin near $170,000, with a long-term parity level of $266,000 calculated against gold on a volatility-adjusted basis. "The asset has moved from something big firms opposed to something they now build into formal forecasts." — Matt Hougan