NASA Panel Estimates 22 Starship Flights for Moon Landing; Musk Claims 6 to 8

NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel estimates it will take approximately 22 SpaceX Starship tanker flights to refuel the Artemis IV lunar lander for its planned 2028 mission. Elon Musk explicitly disputed the agency's calculation, stating that the actual number of required orbital launches will be 6 to 8. The Starship architecture requires in-orbit refueling because the vehicle burns nearly all of its propellant reaching Earth orbit, necessitating a dedicated storage depot and a series of sequential tanker transfers. The discrepancy between the estimates likely stems from hardware capabilities, with NASA using current lift data and accounting for orbital boil-off, while Musk assumes an upgraded V3 Starship that has not yet flown. "We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander. I think the last estimate is around 22 flights." — Charlie Precourt, NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel.