Pentagon Bans US Forces From Betting on Prediction Markets Over Intel Leaks

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has issued a directive barring all Pentagon staff from using undisclosed, nonpublic information to place wagers on upcoming military actions via prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. The prohibition covers both classified and unclassified nonpublic information, aiming to prevent adversaries from monitoring market movements to glean operational intelligence. The new policy follows the April indictment of US Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly made more than $400,000 on Polymarket using classified advance knowledge of an operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Hegseth also cited internal conflicts of interest, arguing that military logisticians and analysts with financial stakes in specific geopolitical outcomes could have their professional judgment compromised. In a similar February incident, Israeli authorities arrested and indicted a military reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified information to bet on Polymarket regarding strikes on Iran. “Make no mistake why this matters. Our enemies watch movements in these markets. The lives of our Service members often depend on the enemy not knowing what is coming.” — Pete Hegseth.