Gartner Warns Over $3.5 Trillion in AI Infrastructure Faces Write-Down Risk by 2030

Gartner warned in an October 14 report that more than $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending is at risk of impairment by the end of 2030. The research firm projects cumulative AI infrastructure capital expenditures will reach approximately $7 trillion by the end of the decade. The industry would need $8.5 trillion in cumulative revenue to earn a 12% return on that invested capital, but Gartner projects data center-tied AI revenue will not exceed $3.6 trillion through 2030. The firm singles out specialized neocloud providers as highly exposed, predicting that more than 80% will stop operating independently by 2030 due to cost pressures. Analyst Will Sommer noted that asset-light business models among AI-native companies hinder revenue from reaching the infrastructure owners.